Computational Modelling Group

Adding social ties to the Schelling model

Seth Bullock, Sally Brailsford (Investigators), Elisabeth zu-Erbach-Schoenberg

The Schelling model is an abstract model for segregation in
a spatially arranged population. We extended the traditional model by the addition of a dynamic social network. The social network influences the spatial dynamics of agents moving on the grid by changing the agents’ evaluation of their neighbourhood. In turn, the spatial arrangement influences the change of the social network.

Amorphous Computation, Random Graphs and Complex Biological Networks

Seth Bullock (Investigator)

This interdisciplinary research collaboration arose within the Simple Models of Complex Networks research cluster funded by the EPSRC www.epsrca.ac.uk through the Novel Computation Initiative. Here, leading groups from the Universities of Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Southampton, Royal Holloway and King’s College and industrial partners BT are brought together for the first time to develop novel amorphous computation methods based on the theory of random graphs.

An investigation in to the effects of information provision on driver learning

Ben Waterson, Hans Fangohr (Investigators), James Snowdon

This work aims to better understand and model the role of individual learning and experience on driver route choice. We intend to demonstrate that vehicle-driver agent based models stand alone in being able to capture the complex reciprocal interactions between drivers and their environment, and allow us to incorporate the effects of prior knowledge from previous trips and advice from official information sources and social networks.

An Investigation into the Cascade Effect of Mergers on the Global Financial Markets

Seth Bullock, Antonella Ianni (Investigators), Camillia Zedan

An investigation into the external effects that horizontal mergers have on the interconnected global markets.

Fracturing of small social networks

Seth Bullock, Sally Brailsford (Investigators), Elisabeth zu-Erbach-Schoenberg

A connected social network is a very important factor for the success of groups and organisations. We investigate which factors make a group more resistant to the effects of disagreements which commonly happen in small social networks.

Generic Operational Simulation of Civil Unmanned Air Vehicle Operations

Kenji Takeda, James Scanlan (Investigators)

This project creates a generic operational simulation of Unmanned Air Vehicle Operations. UAVs can be valued for their mission-suitability and compared against various configurations.

Lagrangian modelling of ecosystem dynamics at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study station

Tom Anderson, Seth Bullock (Investigators), Melissa Saeland

Focus in the marine ecosystem modelling community is starting to shift towards the use of Lagrangian, agent-based models as these are believed to produce more realistic results. The basic assumptions behind these models have not been thoroughly tested, and this project aims to undertake a detailed study of Lagrangian marine ecosystem models, before creating one to investigate the dynamics at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study station (BATS).

Network Analysis of Roman Transport Routes in the Imperial Roman Mediterranean

David Potts

This research is designed to explore the nature of the relationships between Portus, Rome, and other selected ports in the Mediterranean and to establish patterns and the changing nature of trading networks derived from the distribution of known Roman artefacts.

Operational Simulation of the Solent Search-and-Rescue environment

James Scanlan, Kenji Takeda, Hans Fangohr (Investigators), Ben Schumann

This project aims to identify useful metrics for a proposed Search-and-Rescue UAV and test it virtually in a realistic environment.

Reconstructing past lake conditions using sediment cores

Seth Bullock

Lake sediments can be analysed for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions, and past abundances of different species. These data are the first step in the creation of a simulation model which will investigate the dramatic fluctuations in environmental conditions in the East African Rift Valley soda lakes.

Selection pressure for language and theory-of-mind in monkeys

Jason Noble (Investigator)

To what extent are the alarm calls of putty-nosed monkeys likely to be a good model for human language evolution? Simulation is used to classify evolutionary trajectories as either plausible or implausible, and to put lower bounds on the cognitive complexity required to perform particular behaviours.

Separation of timescales in models of complex networks

Seth Bullock (Investigator), Elisabeth zu-Erbach-Schoenberg, Connor McCabe

In many real-world systems several processes act on the system state. The way these processes interact can have implications for the resulting system state. We investigate how separation of the timescales of two processes influences the system's equilibrium state.

Simulation modelling of habitat permeability for mammalian wildlife

Patrick Doncaster, Jason Noble (Investigators), Angela Watkins

Using and integrating least-cost models and agent-based simulations to explore the way in which mammals interact with, and hence move, through fragmented landscapes.

Simulation of Parking Choice Behaviour

Ben Waterson, Hans Fangohr (Investigators), James Snowdon

Exploring how psychological models of individual parking search behaviours can be combined into an accurate simulation of vehicle flows, allowing for assessment of the impact on searching traffic of different demand/ supply ratios, different driver population characteristics and different charging regimes.

Spatial Mobility in the Formation of Agent-Based Economic Networks

Antonella Ianni, Seth Bullock (Investigators), Camillia Zedan

An investigation into the effect of spatial mobility on endogenous economic network formation.

Spatially Embedded Complex Systems Engineering

Seth Bullock (Investigator)

SECSE brought together an interdisciplinary team of scientists working on an ambitious three-and-a-half year project titled. The research cluster spanned neuroscience, artificial intelligence, geography, and complex systems in an attempt to understand the role of spatial organization and spatial processes in complex networks within the domains of neural control, geo-information systems and distributed IT systems such as those implicated in air-traffic control.

The Endogenous Formation of Economic Networks

Antonella Ianni, Seth Bullock (Investigators), Camillia Zedan

An investigation into endogenous network formation using a simple agent-based approach.

The Origins of Communication Revisited

Jason Noble (Investigator), Jordi Arranz

Quinn (2001) sought to demonstrate that communication be- tween simulated agents could be evolved without pre-defined communication channels. Quinn’s work was exciting because it showed the potential for ALife models to look at the real origin of communication; however, the work has never been replicated. In order to test the generality of Quinn’s result we use a similar task but a completely different agent architecture. We find that qualitatively similar behaviours emerge, but it is not clear whether they are genuinely communicative. We extend Quinn’s work by adding perceptual noise and internal state to the agents in order to promote ritualization of the nascent signal. Results were inconclusive; philosophical implications are discussed.

The Role of Information in Price Discovery

Antonella Ianni, Seth Bullock (Investigators), Camillia Zedan

The recent economic crisis has highlighted a continued vulnerability and lack of understanding in the financial markets. In order to overcome this, many believe that current market models must be improved. Recently, a trend towards agent-based modelling has emerged. Viewing the economy as a complex system is beginning to be seen as key to explaining certain market characteristics that were originally considered anomalies.

One of the fundamental assumptions in economics is that of information efficiency: that the price of a stock reflects its worth, that all possible information about a security is publicly known, and that any changes to price take place instantaneously. In reality, however, this is not the case.

This project considers the use of agents in modelling economic systems and demonstrates the effect of information levels on price discovery using a simple market simulation.