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• Energy Technology Research Group Seminar: Modelling Technology Learning in a Multi-Region Global TIMES Model

Web page

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/people/?school=energy&upi=GANAN46

Submitter

Luke Goater

Speaker:

Dr. Gabrial Anandarajah, Lecture in Energy System Modelling, UCL Energy Institute, University College London.

Abstract:

One important mechanism through which the cost of technologies is reduced is learning-by-doing. This is a well-characterized concept in the economics of innovation, in which learning about a particular technology, and hence cost reduction, is related to cumulative investments in that technology.

In a long-term dynamic model such as TIMES the characteristics of many of the future technologies are almost inevitably changing over the sequence of future periods due to technological learning. In some cases it is possible to forecast such changes in investment cost as a function of time, and thus to define a time-series of values for cost. In such cases, technological learning is exogenous since it depends only on time elapsed and may thus be established outside the model. We developed long-term scenarios by implementing global technology learning endogenously in the TIAM-UCL global energy system model to analyse the role of hydrogen and electricity to decarbonise the transport sector. The analysis uses a multi-cluster global technology learning approach where key components (fuel cell, electric battery and electric drive train), to which learning is applied, are shared across different vehicle technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and battery operated vehicles in cars, light goods vehicles and buses.

Biography:

Dr. Gabrial Anandarajah is an expert in energy system modelling and policy analysis, working on energy system models such as MARKAL and TIMES for energy and climate policy analysis at national, regional and global level. He has over ten years research experience and worked in developed and developing countries. Since his move to the UK in 2008, he had been working on UK MARKAL and global TIMES model under UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) Phase I and Phase II projects and UK Sustainable Hydrogen Energy Consortia (UKSHEC) projects and Bio energy project. The Times Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM)-UCL, which is a multi-region global energy system model, has been successfully developed under his leadership under the UKERC Phase II project. He also developed 2-region UK MARKAL model, where Scotland and rest of the UK are the two regions, under UKSHEC plus project. Gabrial also carries out analysis to UK Government bodies such as Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Committee on Climate Change (CCC).

Tea, coffee and biscuits will be served from 11.50 am.